The European Journal of Comparative Economics

ISSN: 1824-2979

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EJCE Year: 2025, June. Volume: 22 - Issue: 1

How the post-COVID-19 US economy lost and then regained momentum against the Eurozone economy

by Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

Start page: 129 - End page: 174

Keywords: GDP; wavelet analysis; forecasting; US economy; Eurozone economy

Jel code: C01; C5; C53; E17; E3; E37

DOI: 10.25428/1824-2979/038

Abstract:

The objective of the paper is to assess and compare the resilience of the post-Covid US and Eurozone economies. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of the Real GDP of US and the Eurozone are forecasted between Q4 2023 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q3 2023) and not including the pandemic (from Q4 1997 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economies during the pandemic, the greater the difference the greater the resilience. Used as a benchmark, Eurozone (19 countries) shows a greater resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic (+0.27%) than the US (+0.17%) based on Q4 2023-Q4 2050 forecasts. However, the average of Q4 2023 - Q4 2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecasts of the Eurozone is expected to be +0.87% with the Q4 1997 – Q3 2023 historical data whereas it is expected to be +1.49% for US. The US economy shows better prospects and greater momentum than the Eurozone economy.

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